April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Greece will have to restructure its
debt and should avoid waiting too long to do it, Lars Feld, a
member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's council of economic
advisers, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
'I don't think that Greece will succeed in this
consolidation strategy without any restructuring in the future,
or perhaps also in the near future,' Feld told Bloomberg
Television's Nicole Itano in Frankfurt. 'Greece should
restructure sooner than later.'
While there's consensus among most economists that Greece
has to restructure, policy makers in Germany are divided and the
European Central Bank isn't ready to back such a move, Feld
said. Greece's debt will swell to 150 percent of gross domestic
product, meaning the country will have to pay as much as 9
percent of its GDP in interest, he said.
Greek government bonds fell, pushing the yield on the two-
year security up as much as 64 basis points to a euro-era record
of 23.65 percent today, reflecting mounting investor
expectations that Greece will renege on its debts. The
government in Athens has ruled out a restructuring, saying it
would devastate domestic banks and hammer the economy.
Germany 'is currently not willing to support a Greek
restructuring and when you look at the ECB and also the German
representatives in the ECB, they're not supporting a Greek
restructuring as well,' said Feld.
'Worst Case'
A debt restructuring by a euro country risks triggering a
banking crisis that in a 'worst case' could exceed the effects
of the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., ECB Chief
Economist Juergen Stark told ZDF German television.
Feld said while the exposure of German banks to highly
indebted countries overall is 'relatively high,' the exposure
to Greece is 'not so strong' and the domestic banking system
should be able to cope with any restructuring.
'I don't think that the private banking sector in Germany
is going to have particular problems, and in particular not
Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank,' Feld said. Deutsche Bank AG
advanced 1.2 percent to 41.60 euros while Commerzbank AG fell
0.1 percent to 4.37 euros at 10:30 a.m. in Frankfurt.
Europe's statistics agency reported today that Greece's
2010 budget deficit was more than a percentage point wider than
initially estimated. The shortfall was 10.5 percent of GDP,
compared with the 9.4 percent reported in February.
Italy has 'drawn a line under crisis' and Spain will be
able to resist the contagion that has spread from Greece to
Ireland and Portugal, said Feld. Portugal's two-year yield
touched a euro-era record of 11.57 percent today before trimming
its advance to 11.47 percent.
'Spain has already done quite a lot. It is not so highly
indebted as many other countries in the European Union,' Feld
said. 'The large Spanish banks are very healthy and I think the
restructuring of the savings banks' has taken place 'to a
considerable' extent.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net