June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Prada SpA's trading debut in Hong
Kong just as the territory becomes one of this year's worst-
performing markets for initial public offerings may foreshadow a
slowdown in IPOs by foreign companies.
After selling shares near the low end of the targeted range
for its $2.1 billion IPO last week, the Italian maker of Miu Miu
handbags may be poised to fall when it lists tomorrow, over-the-
counter trading shows. A decline by Prada would add to losses of
$873 million for investors in the 31 Hong Kong IPOs this year,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
While Hong Kong has lured companies from Prada to Samsonite
International SA seeking to tap the world's fastest-growing
major economy in China, their shares have retreated as concern
about Chinese inflation sent the Hang Seng Index to its worst
slump in 2 1/2 years. Only one of the 16 companies that started
trading this year after raising more than $100 million in a Hong
Kong IPO has risen from its offer price, the lowest ratio among
the 10 largest equity markets, Bloomberg data show.
'Companies considering a Hong Kong listing are now in the
wait-and-see mode,' said Josef Schuster, founder of Chicago-
based IPOX Schuster LLC, which oversees about $2.5 billion.
'Now any issuer who thinks of a listing in Hong Kong will need
to give a discount, which makes Hong Kong less attractive for
the companies.'
2008 Slump
The 46 companies in the benchmark Hang Seng Index now trade
at an average 11.5 times earnings, close to the lowest level
since March 2009 and less than the 14.7 times for the Standard &
Poor's 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Hang Seng
has slumped for five straight weeks, the longest stretch of
declines since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s collapse in 2008.
Milan-based Prada lowered the ceiling for pricing of its
IPO and then sold shares at the low end of the revised price
guidance, raising $2.14 billion. Samsonite, the world's largest
branded luggage maker, dropped 7.7 percent in its debut after
selling shares at the low end of a revised range. The company
started as Shwayder Trunk Manufacturing in Denver in 1910 closed
today at HK$14.50, unchanged from its offer price.
Prada shares last traded at HK$38.50, according to
transactions brokered by the gray-market desk at Louis Capital
Market in Hong Kong. Prada sold shares at HK$39.50 apiece.
'When those high-profile ones come with a lot of promise
and are getting priced at the low end, that's usually a sign
that things are tired and investors or companies may decide they
need to take a break or bring down their expectations,' said
Katherine Schapiro, a San Francisco-based manager at Sentinel
Asset Management Inc., which oversees about $20 billion. 'The
Hong Kong IPO market has been quite frothy for some time.'
Four Attempts
Prada, which tried and failed four times to go public in
the decade through 2010 in markets outside Hong Kong, still
managed to extract a valuation of about 23 times estimated full-
year earnings, a person with knowledge of the matter said last
week.
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world's biggest
maker of luxury goods, trades at 19.4 times projected earnings,
while smaller rival PPR SA, maker of Gucci, is valued at 13.9
times, analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Both
companies are based and listed in Paris.
Prada is listing after this year's IPOs in Hong Kong lost
8.6 percent on average as of yesterday's close, wiping $873
million off the combined amount they raised, data compiled by
Bloomberg show.
'No Blind Investing'
Hong Kong stocks started dropping as Prada, Samsonite and
Glencore International Plc were preparing to go public, hammered
by investor concerns that China will be unable to contain
inflation that soared to an almost three-year high of 5.5
percent last month. Meanwhile, slower-than-expected lending and
money supply have added to evidence that the world's second-
largest economy is slowing.
'Hong Kong investors have relatively matured over the
years and even for global marquee brands, investors will do
their analysis,' said Pradeep Rao, head of consumer and health
care investment banking for Asia-Pacific at Citigroup Inc. in
Hong Kong. 'They'll pay for growth. But no blind investing.'
Hong Kong's woes contrast with the U.S., where first-day
rallies by companies including Mountain View, California-based
LinkedIn Corp. and Russia's Yandex NV drew comparisons to the
1990s Internet bubble. The 105 U.S. IPOs advanced 1.2 percent on
average, creating about $1.9 billion in market value for
investors who bought into them, the data show.
Shares of LinkedIn, the first major U.S. social-networking
site to hold an IPO, doubled in their first day of trading on
May 19. Oakland, California-based Pandora Media Inc., an online-
radio company, priced an IPO of $235 million above the range
marketed to investors, at $16 a share.
Window Closing
U.S. IPOs have raised $30.5 billion so far this year,
beating the $23.6 billion for initial sales in mainland China
and the $13.6 billion for Hong Kong deals, according to data
compiled to Bloomberg. The $48.2 billion in U.S. offerings last
year trailed the $70.3 billion in mainland China and the $51.8
billion raised in Hong Kong.
Foreign companies listing in Hong Kong have had to settle
for lower-than-maximum valuations. Macau casino venture MGM
China Holdings Ltd. is the only company since October to price
an IPO of more than $1 billion in the city at the top end of a
marketed range, Bloomberg data show. MGM China shares have
fallen 14 percent from the IPO price.
Prince Frog International Holdings Ltd., a Chinese maker of
childcare products, delayed an IPO of as much as $200 million by
a week to July 15 because of stock market fluctuations, said a
person with knowledge of the matter who declined to be
identified as the decision isn't public.
'The window of opportunity may be closing,' said Tim
Loughran, a finance professor at the University of Notre Dame's
Mendoza College of Business in Notre Dame, Indiana. 'The market
is becoming less and less receptive.'
To contact the reporters on this story:
Fox Hu in Hong Kong at
fhu7@bloomberg.net ;
Zijing Wu in London at
zwu17@bloomberg.net ;
Lee Spears in New York at
lspears3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Philip Lagerkranser at
lagerkranser@bloomberg.net