Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose
last week to the highest level in more than five months and the
pace of firings declined, showing an improving job market is
bolstering the biggest part of the economy.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index climbed to minus 44.8
in the period ended Dec. 31, the best reading since mid-July,
from minus 47.5 the prior week. Applications for jobless
benefits decreased by 15,000 during the same time to 372,000,
according to Labor Department figures.
A pickup in hiring will further lift Americans' moods,
raising the odds household spending, which accounts for about 70
percent of the economy, will keep climbing. A Labor Department
report tomorrow may show employers added more workers to
payrolls in December, brightening the outlook for growth this
year.
'The improvement in the labor market means incomes will
grow,' said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at
State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston who is the most
accurate jobless-claims forecaster over the past two years.
'That will really help consumer spending.'
Shares rose, led by a rally in banking and technology
stocks that overcame an early slump among retailers amid
disappointing profit forecasts. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index
gained 0.3 percent to 1,281.41 at 1:40 p.m. in New York.
Companies added 325,000 workers to payrolls in December,
more than forecast, adding to evidence the labor market was
gaining momentum heading into 2012, figures from Roseland, New
Jersey-based ADP Employer Services also showed today.
Definite 'Strengthening'
'There's definitely a strengthening going on here' in the
labor market, Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers
LLC in St. Louis, said in a press conference after the ADP
report.
The jump did come with a caveat. The December ADP number
may have reflected the so-called purge effect. Workers,
regardless of when they are dismissed or quit, sometimes remain
on company records until December, when businesses update, or
purge, their figures with ADP.
'There's some possibility that today's number has been
pushed up by that idiosyncratic feature of ADP data,' Prakken
said. 'In an improving labor market it can lead to an upward
bias to seasonal job gains.' Macroeconomic Advisers produces
the figures in conjunction with ADP.
Payrolls rose by 150,000 last month after increasing by
120,000 in November, according to the median forecast of
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of tomorrow's report
from the Labor Department.
Service Industries
Another report today showed service industries expanded
less than forecast in December. The Institute for Supply
Management's index of non-manufacturing industries, which
account for almost 90 percent of the economy, rose to 52.6 last
month from 52 in November, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said
today.
The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg
called for an increase to 53. Fifty is the dividing line between
expansion and contraction.
In contrast to the U.S., service industries in the U.K.
expanded in December at the fastest pace in five months.
Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in November as
slower global growth damped demand for the country's resources.
All three components on the consumer comfort index -- the
state of the economy, personal finances, and buying climate --
improved last week.
Holiday Shopping
Same-store sales for the more than 20 companies tracked by
Retail Metrics gained 3.6 percent in December, topping the 3.3
percent average of estimates gathered by the Swampscott,
Massachusetts-based researcher as of yesterday, figures today
showed. Macy's Inc., based in Cincinnati, reported a 6.2 percent
increase in same-store sales, topping the 4.6 percent estimate.
Results that fell short of analysts' estimates at Gap Inc.,
Target Corp. and Kohl's Corp. led retail shares lower today,
depressing the broader market. The merchants mistimed promotions
or ran out of inventory during the holiday shopping season,
analysts said.
Demand at Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Chrysler
Group LLC exceeded analysts' forecasts in December, other data
showed yesterday. Ford's U.S. sales climbed 10 percent from a
year earlier, while purchases of Chrysler vehicles were up 37
percent. At GM, they increased 4.5 percent from a year earlier.
Auto Sales
The increase in sales is paced by improving employment, Don
Johnson, vice president at GM for U.S. sales, said on a
conference call with analysts. 'Consumers are more confident
and other underpinnings of our economy are either stable or
slowly improving.'
The Bloomberg index is in sync with other surveys. The
Conference Board's confidence gauge increased in December to
64.5, the highest level since April, figures from the New York-
based private research group showed on Dec. 27.
One reason for the rebound in sentiment is the drop in
firings. Over the past four weeks, the average number of jobless
claims dropped to the lowest level since June 2008, today's
Labor Department showed.
'Claims are moving in the right direction,' said Aneta
Markowska, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New
York.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Christopher Wellisz at
cwellisz@bloomberg.net